Senior member and co-founder Win Tin said the NLD would continue to function as a group, rather than a political party though certain reports have suggested the possibility of members forming their own parties in order to qualify for elections.

The NLD formed in 1988, in the wake of anti-government violence which left thousands dead. Since the party’s 1990 election win, Ms Suu Kyi has spent much of her time in some form of detention or house arrest.

The forthcoming polls will be Burma’s first in 20 years. No confirmed date has been set yet.

Sources:
Aung San Suu Kyi’s Party to be Abolished [ChannelNewsAsia, 7 May 2010]
Burma’s NLD Democracy Party Faces Dissolution [BBC News, 6 May 2010]

Photographs and images used on this website are obtained from publicly-accessible resources. No copyright infringement is intended.

Under the new electoral laws, the party would have to expel Suu Kyi if it wanted to participate because she is serving a prison term. Additionally, failure to register for the elections would result in automatic dissolution, bringing about the end of the NLD. Despite this possibility, Suu Kyi has expressed her support towards her party’s decision.

While Myanmar has always escaped formal censure from the grouping in the past due to their non-interference policy, some ASEAN members have separately criticised Myanmar’s military regime and called for Aung San Suu Kyi’s release.

Sources:
ASEAN MPs Tell Leaders to Consider Expelling Myanmar [AFP, 7 Apr 2010]
ASEAN to Question Myanmar over Election Laws [Reuters, 7 Apr 2010]

Photographs and images used on this website are obtained from publicly-accessible resources. No copyright infringement is intended.

The decision not to allow iconic Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to participate in elections in Myanmar was bad enough. But the latest news that her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), will also not participate leads many to worry that the vote later this year will be a farce.

Hopes had been raised for an end to the country’s near pariah status. First, Myanmar decided to move ahead with the long delayed Constitutional reform and elections on their self-proclaimed road to democracy. Then, the USA changed policy to engage the regime, although maintaining sanctions. Third, members of the regional group, ASEAN, called persistently for free and fair elections.

Hopes have now dimmed that elections will bring in a new and credible government, whether formed by Aung San Suu Kyi or parties led by those close to the military. In the Saffron Revolution of 2007, when the military used excessive force against monks, the images were more dramatic. But the current situation is no less worrying.

What happens if the elections go ahead but lack competition and credibility? What can and should ASEAN neighbours like Singapore do with the new government? Might flawed elections foment internal instability, as with Iran?

There are implications for ASEAN and for Singapore, which has sometimes been singled out as being close to Myanmar.

While it is true that Singapore engages in investment, aid and technical assistance, it is not a defender or proxy of the regime, and increasingly has offered critical comments. The relationship between the two countries is evolving. Even if Singapore will not join the largely Western chorus of criticism, there is a range of policy options that the government can and should explore in future.

Such options were discussed amongst Singaporean experts, business leaders, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) involved in Myanmar in a roundtable organized by the SIIA.

Some observations may surprise. While Singaporean economic transactions in Myanmar are criticized, their absolute value is small — less than a quarter of 1% of Singapore’s total trade. For investment, while some Singaporean companies went in early, few are now actively looking to increase their exposure in the country. Instead, there is considerable caution and even notes of pessimism about business prospects there.

On humanitarian efforts, Singapore-based nongovernmental organizations have reported some success in helping people in the wake of Cyclone Nargis in 2008. But they also reported continuing limits to their direct access to citizen groups.

After the Saffron Revolution, there is also a sense that Singaporean public opinion has turned against the regime. There may not be pressure for sanctions, but there is an expectation that the Singaporean leadership should not cosset or be too close to such a regime.

Going forward, there is a spectrum of policy options, ranging from “proxy” to “principled”. Some businesses and experts suggest that Singapore should implicitly accept the junta’s actions and encourage the full range of business activities as well as government ties, as a “proxy”.

At the other end of the spectrum, some feel that a more “principled” approach should now be taken. This would have Singapore emulate the posture of the US and Europe, with diplomatic disengagement, reduced aid and economic sanctions.

A middle path of pragmatism is also possible. Singapore would continue to work for change, but in a quieter way. Aid, investment, and technical assistance could continue at appropriate levels and for directed causes, while Singapore used an independent voice to encourage reform.

For elections in Myanmar, Singapore has quite consistently called for a credible process and for the participation of all parties, including the NLD. Singapore’s position can effect how ASEAN as a whole responds.

The regional group is diverse, with some like Indonesia pushing actively for change and democracy, while others regard this mainly as a domestic issue for Myanmar. Myanmar officials attend approximately 250-300 ASEAN meetings each year, at different levels of bureaucracy. Although this has not brought change, ASEAN as well as Singapore can then leverage their increased access to lessen violations of human rights and encourage fundamental tenets of good governance, in keeping with the ASEAN Charter, which Myanmar has accepted.

Singapore’s relationship with Myanmar bilaterally and through ASEAN can make it a significant player. It cannot shift the regime on its own. But what Singapore does can be significant, especially if there is coordination with ASEAN and other significant players, especially China and the USA.

Coordination does not mean that countries would have identical positions. Rather, like an orchestra, different countries can and should use different instruments and play different notes, provided the main theme is consistent.

Suu Kyi, who has spent most of the last 2 decades in detention, stated last week that she would “never accept” her party registering as the altered laws are “unjust”. Myanmar’s election legislation negates the result of the 1990 election the NLD won by a landslide, a fact which was never recognised by the government. If the party planned to register it would have been forced to recognise that decision, a move unacceptable for a party working towards free democracy. It is likely a new party will be formed by some of the members.

The election is part of the junta’s long-announced ‘roadmap to democracy’, which critics deride as a sham designed to cement the power of the military, which has ruled Myanmar since 1962. No firm date has been set for the polls, but they are expected to be held in November.

Sources:
Main Opposition to Boycott Myanmar Elections [The New York Times, 29 Mar 2010]
Suu Kyi’s Party to Boycott Polls [The Straits Times, 30 Mar 2010]
Suu Kyi’s Opposition Party to Boycott Myanmar Elections [ChannelNewsAsia, 29 Mar 2010]

Photographs and images used on this website are obtained from publicly-accessible resources. No copyright infringement is intended.

The laws also ban members of religious orders and civil servants from joining political parties following anti-junta protests by Buddhist monks in 2007. These controversial laws have caused a commotion in the international arena, with the UN Security Council recently holding closed-door talks on Myanmar with Britain and China contending whether it was appropriate for the 15-member body to intervene in the military-ruled country’s electoral affairs.

Sources:

UN Security Council Mulls Myanmar’s Electoral Laws [ChannelNewsAsia 25 Mar 2010]
Myanmar: Dissident Against Role in Next Election [The New York Times 23 Mar 2010]
Suu Kyi ‘Opposes Election Role for Her Party’ [BBC News 23 Mar 2010]

The ruling comes months before Myanmar is set to adopt a new constitution and hold elections as part of a “road map” for a return to civilian rule.

Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its disappointment over the verdict, and said that a dialogue among the Myanmar authorities, Aung San Suu Kyi and all other political groups ahead of this year’s elections would offer the best prospects for national reconciliation and the long-term political stability of Myanmar.

Myanmar Denies Dissident’s Appeal [New York Times, 26 Feb 2010]
Suu Kyi ruling ‘disappointing’ [Straits Times, 26 Feb 2010]

The Special UN envoy arrived on Monday for a five-day visit in Myanmar to evaluate its progress on human rights reform before the scheduled elections later this year. Upon his arrival, Quintana met for talks with NLD lawyers and Myanmar judges. However, it remains to be seen whether he was made aware of the arrests of the activists. The following day, he flew to Rakhine, a state of western Myanmar located near the Bangladeshi border, where campaigners criticized the junta over their treatment of local ethnic groups. The Rohingya are an impoverished Muslim minority living in Rakhine, whom Myanmar refuses to acknowledge. On Tuesday, Amnesty International released a report condemning the military junta’s human rights record and calling on the regime to stop the repression of ethnic minorities in Myanmar. The organization claimed that during an uprising by activists including Rakhine monks in 2008, more than 31 lives perished when it was violently suppressed.  Before going to visit Yangon’s Insein prison where many dissidents are held, Quintana was expected to meet with officials and various members of non-governmental organizations.

On the last day of his visit, Quintana is to meet with several ministers and other government officials, but there have been no plans to meet with leader Than Shwe or Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi has been detained for 14 of the last 20 years after her party, the NLD won the elections in 1990 and was prevented from taking power by the military junta. 

Sources:

AFP, “Myanmar jails women activists as UN envoy visits”, February 16, 2010, http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100216/wl_asia_afp/myanmarunrights_20100216154239

AP, “Myanmar sentences 4 activists as UN envoy visits”, February 16, 2010, http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5isLUHQ3M1tKZzYfJ4Ap0pAuCvycgD9DT5POO0
 
TODAY, “4 activists sentenced as UN human rights envoy visits Myanmar”, February 16, 2010, http://www.todayonline.com/BreakingNews/EDC100216-0000096/4-activists-sentenced-as-UN-human-rights-envoy-visits-Myanmar

Suu Kyi has been kept under house arrest for 14 of the past 20 years by the ruling military junta who has been in power since 1962. She was sentenced to an additional 18 months of detention for charges of government subversion when American John Yettaw swam uninvited to her lakeside home. An appeal to overturn her extended detention time was rejected by a Myanmar court and another decision from Myanmar’s Supreme Court is expected in the coming weeks.

A spokesman for the National League for Democracy (NLD) mentioned that her release even if after the elections, would not be politically significant as under Myanmar’s new constitution, her British residency status would render her ineligible for running in the upcoming elections. Her campaigning nonetheless would have had a powerful impact on locals.

The elections will be the first held since 1990 when Suu Kyi’s party, the NLD had achieved a landslide victory that the military leaders refused to acknowledge. Recently, the United States and the European Union have shifted their Myanmar policy from isolation to engagement, as sanctions and trade embargoes proved ineffective. US President Barack Obama has also promised better ties with Myanmar if it pursued democratic reforms and released political prisoners such as Suu Kyi.

Sources:

Reuters, “Myanmar minister says Suu Kyi to be freed in November”, January 25, 2010, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60O0J020100125

The Straits Times, “Suu Kyi may be freed in November”, January 26, 2010, http://www.straitstimes.com/Asia/South-eastAsia/Story/STIStory_482011.html?sunwMethod=GET

The Times of India, “Myanmar junta could free Suu Kyi in November”, January 25, 2010, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/Myanmar-junta-could-free-Suu-Kyi-in-November/articleshow/5499373.cms

Gail’s investment comes after reports that its net profits have undergone a three-fold rise in the quarter ending 31st December 2009. Profits have increased from
USD $55 million in the corresponding period in 2008 to USD $188 million in 2009 soaring 240%. This jump in profits has been attributed to a rise in the transportation of gas, and improved gains from the sale of liquid hydrocarbons, LPG and petrochemicals.

The 870 km pipeline is being constructed by the China National Petroleum Corporation in a bid to transport natural gas located off the Coast of Myanmar to consuming centres in mainland China. When built, it would “transport gas from offshore block A-1 and A-3 (in Myanmar) to China,” Gail Chairman and Managing Director B C Tripathi said.  The pipeline can be seen to be another of China’s attempts to secure more energy sources globally.

Sources:
The Economic Times, “Gail to buy 4% in Myanmar-China project”, January 19, 2010, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Oil-Gas/Gail-to-buy-4-in-Myanmar-China-project/articleshow/5474959.cms

The Times of India, “Gail eyes 4% in Chinese pipeline, Q3 net trebles”, January 19, 2010,  http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/biz/india-business/GAIL-eyes-4-in-Chinese-pipeline-Q3-net-trebles/articleshow/5474653.cms

The Telegraph, “GAIL net triples to Rs 860cr”, January 18, 2010, http://www.telegraphindia.com/1100119/jsp/business/story_12001692.jsp